Autres publications du Gerpisa

Forthcoming.

Will the battery industry change the automotive industry? Marc Alochet's presentation is based on the forthcoming issue of IJATM, the Gerpisa journal.

We need to understand the development of this industry from the point of view of CO2 emission regulations. There has been a significant increase in the production of electric vehicles (EVs). It wasn't the automotive industry that rushed into the production of EVs, nor were customers the ones pushing for the manufacture of EVs. It was regulations that forced this trajectory.

Today, China has absolute domination over all areas of the value chain. When China does not have the capacity at home, particularly in terms of raw materials, it is the leading importer. China dominates the market. Traditional carmakers have mastered ICE technology, but today they are dependent on China for everything to do with EVs, especially when it comes to supplying batteries.

By 2021, EV sales in China have surpassed half of global sales. How can this be explained? We need to look at regulations and financial support for electrification. China is acting on supply and demand, helping the market to take off and encouraging the purchase of new electric vehicles. In the USA, the Obama-era policy was somewhat proactive, but had little long-term effect. In the EU, investment is around half that in China. lire la suite

The main reason for electrification is carbon emissions. Carbon neutrality: the aim of the carbon neutrality objectives is to limit CO2 emissions. And of all the sectors, the transport sector accounts for half of all emissions. The European Commission has decided to make decarbonisation the main thrust of the Green Deal. The legislative package is highly ambitious, notably with Fit for 55.
Fit for 55 is aimed specifically at the car fleet, which implies the end of the internal combustion engine by 2035. The EU has therefore embarked on an accelerated path towards electrification. This trajectory is unique in the world, as not even China has embarked on this path.
The solution proposed by the European Commission is to sell new electric vehicles. However, the number of cars on the road has increased, and sales of new vehicles are stagnating. In 2021, 10 million new vehicles will be sold. Fleet renewal is becoming slower and slower. In 2021, it will take 26 years to renew the car fleet. lire la suite

This book is part of a series of studies on innovation in the automotive industry. This research was conducted in three stages.
- Analysis of the Chinese market in 2018
- A mission to China in 2018 and 2019.
- A survey in France in 2021.

The Chinese market has become the largest automotive market in the world. All manufacturers are looking to enter it because it is a big market. In 1993 there was a first joint venture of Renault in China, which was stopped in 2004. In 2013, a joint venture was created between Dongfeng and Renault. The first products were ICE vehicles.
In 2012-2015 Renault tried to enter the market with electric products, but failed because the products were far too expensive and had low performance. Finally, in 2015 Carlos Gohn decided to launch a project to electrify the Kwid.

The question that the authors are asking themselves is how to position the vehicle in terms of price so that it finds its place?

It has to be as cheap as possible, but it has to perform well as an EV. We also have to bear in mind that Chinese regulations are very restrictive and change very quickly. The solution adopted was to go and find Chinese suppliers, and not those of the large international groups. This allowed us to converge on the price target. Similarly, the factory also had to meet the price constraints. lire la suite

Quelles seront les conséquences de l’électrification sur le parc automobile ? Et quels sont les conséquences sur les services de l’automobile, les réseaux de marque, l’après-vente indépendante, etc. ? La dé-diésélisation et la transition vers le véhicule électrique impliquerait une baisse de l’activité d’entretien et de réparation.

Il y a un premier enjeu lié à la taille du parc automobile. Depuis une quinzaine d’années, on travaillait avec des statistiques du ministère qui s’arrêtaient au bout de 16 ans d’ancienneté du véhicule. Il y avait donc une double sous-estimation : 1/ sous-estimation de l’âge moyen du parc, 2/ sous-estimation de la taille du parc. Des travaux ont été conduits pour y voir plus clair permettant une meilleure estimation sur la base du contrôle technique (une voiture contrôlée est utilisée). On peut les croiser avec des statistiques de la fédération française des assureurs. En effet, un véhicule assuré continue d’être utilisée. lire la suite

Will deindustrialisation be stopped or even reversed? This presentation is based on a report submitted in April 2021 for the Observatoire de la Métallurgie.

The trends over the last twenty years have been unfavourable for the automotive industry (AI). France used to be the second largest producer of automobiles in Europe, after Germany. Today this is no longer the case. In France, there is a trend towards a decline in the industry, with some slight stabilisation, followed by a decline in industrial employment. There is outsourcing to temporary work or to the service sector, but the contribution to GDP of AI is declining. That is to say, there is a loss of weight of the sector in the national economy.

This decline in the automotive sector is specific, as it is not seen in the aeronautical or naval industries. Moreover, this employment crisis affects all the French territories: the constructors are concentrated in a few regions, but the equipment manufacturers are distributed everywhere in the territory. Moreover, productivity gains in the automotive industry do not explain the drop in employment. lire la suite

The question of electrification can be asked differently, not only from the point of view of the production of electric vehicles (EVs), but from the point of view of the electricity distribution network.

There is an increasing need for decarbonisation of the transport and mobility sector. This requires a transition to EVs and regulations are moving in this direction, with political and governmental commitments to move towards decarbonisation. More and more manufacturers are moving in this direction, with two incentives: subsidies and fines. lire la suite

Would the electrification of the automobile offer simply shift the problem? With the electric vehicle (EV), the emissions are no longer on the street, but where the electricity or the vehicle is manufactured. Today, almost one in two EVs (battery-powered and hybrids) is sold in China, the world's largest market, followed by Germany. More surprisingly, more EVs are sold in Germany than in the US. Finally, twice as many EVs are sold in Germany as in France.

China has a strong hold on the EV value chain. The companies that produce EVs are Chinese, or manufacture in China. For batteries, six of the largest manufacturers are Chinese. As far as cobalt is concerned, China still mines the ore. It is extracted from the Congo, but the mines are Chinese. It is then transported to China for refining. Moreover, 80% of the world's cobalt refining is controlled by China. China therefore controls the refining bottleneck (and the emissions that go with it)

To deal with this situation, France must put in place an industrial plan to be autonomous across the entire value chain in the production of EVs. This raises issues of industrial sovereignty. In terms of demand in 2030, the recycling of Cobalt will not be at all sufficient for the demand. We can also produce batteries without cobalt, but this will shift the constraint to nickel or phosphate. lire la suite

Should we believe Macron when he said in May 2020 that he would save the French car industry? Should we take him at his word?

After May 2020 and the arrival of Luca de Meo at the head of Renault, he has declared himself in favour of a reengagement of Renault in France. This means that an electric vehicle (EV) in the B segment costing less than 20,000 euros must be manufactured and assembled in France. De Meo has called on Luciano Biondo, former boss of Toyota Valenciennes and a figure of Made in France, to lead this large-scale project, which will see 400,000 EVs assembled in Douai by 2025 and the creation of a gigafactory to supply them with batteries. Rarely have there been so many factors that make it possible to believe in a recovery of the French automotive industry. In addition, since 2012, we have had a monetary policy which means that the state can support these investments from a budgetary point of view. lire la suite

In this seminar session, Tommaso Pardi presents his ongoing work on the challenges of electrification of the automotive supply in Europe. Due to the regulatory changes of the last year, the issue of electrification and emission targets in the European Union has to be followed on an almost daily basis.

Today, regulations are causing the share of electric vehicles (EVs) to increase. Manufacturers have no choice, in the EU there is an acceleration of electrification. We can therefore ask ourselves whether from 2030 onwards only electric vehicles will be sold in Europe. While the EU was lagging behind, in five years the situation has changed in comparison with the United States and China, where the state is investing massively in electromobility.

Few analysts consider the reasons for this acceleration of electrification. There is also a risk that it will create new contradictions, hence the emergence of the "just transition" theme. Indeed, electrification risks impacting on household mobility and reducing jobs in industry. lire la suite