Electrification and Just Transition in the Global Auto Industry: Transition Pathways, Power resources, and Political Economy in Comparative Perspective

Résumé:

Light-vehicle output and sales in 2025 reached about 91 million units, surpassing the 89.9 million units sold in 2019. This indicates a global recovery in auto sales from the effects of the 2020-2024 pandemic and supply chain disruptions (1). By 2026, the automotive industry is expected to maintain similar output and sales data, driven by two opposing forces. On one side, it will be pulled by Chinese competition, electric vehicle (EV) expansion (approaching a 19% market share), connected mobility, and aftermarket digitalization (2). On the other, it will be held back by American tariffs, wars, interest rates, slower economic growth, and uncertainties in the supply chain (3).
Thus, the global automotive industry is undergoing a deep and complex transformation driven by electrification (EV), digitalization, and decarbonization imperatives in the middle of the battle between America and Chinese governments for markets and resources dominance.
While a growing body of scholarship examines the technological and market dynamics of EV, and another expanding literature addresses the normative dimensions of Just Transition (JT), there remains a significant analytical gap in understanding how these processes intersect, co-evolve, and shape governance, and development trajectories across countries and regions.
Building on ongoing work for an upcoming edited volume, this contribution aims to shed light on the need to a more comprehensive understanding of the global transition to EV and JT from a multilayer perspective where pathways to energy transition, power resources, and the political economy of industrial change take a prominent role. Ultimately, by combining in-depth, comparative analysis of both processes, this work targets two objectives – to highlight the socio-political impact of electrification, while substantiating the actual implications of a sustainable transition, beyond normative prescriptions and empty slogans.
The underlying book project rests upon studies from over 12 countries across continents, comparing the extent of the transition, policy frameworks, energy pathways and actual challenges for labour.
Expected findings
The book aims to eventually provide a comprehensive explanation of 1) corporate interests objectives behind company electrification strategies and to derive clear and comparable company trajectories, highlighting what role geography and energy transitions pathways in the Global North and in the Global South play within global business plans; 2) state positions and policy frameworks in relation to the green transition of the automotive industry, intersecting the national and the international level (ex. single states vs EU); 3) union strategies or independent labour responses in reaction to the expected socio-economic impact of the EV transition in the specific location.
Theoretical and Practical Implications
From a theoretical perspective, the volume seeks to provide a systematic understanding of global firm strategies, state approaches and labour responses that can differently affect the prospects of a really just, and sustainable transition. From a practical, and political, viewpoint, the comparative exercise wants to enrich the understanding of workers, labour scholars and practitioners of the global interconnectedness of different industrial locations and energy transitions pathways, eventually providing stronger tools for transnational solidarity and global campaigning for a truly just transition.

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(1) S&P Global (2026),” 2025 automotive sales data highlights mixed global trends,”
https://www.spglobal.com/automotive-insights/en/blogs/2026/01/2025-autom....
(2) Future Market Insights (2026). Automotive Market (2025-2035), https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/automotive-market.
(3) MotorTrend (Dec. 2025). “The Auto Industry Was Wild in 2025—Did All of This Really Happen?,” https://www.motortrend.com/news/2025-automotive-year-review-top-news-sto....