Promoting EV and Infrastructure Deployment in the CAREC Region

Résumé:

Promoting EV and Infrastructure Deployment in the CAREC Region

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges for global sustainability in the 21^st century. Strong and sustained reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could delay the rise in temperature and thereby halt, or at least partially reduce future extreme climate catastrophes.

Compared with many emission-intensive nations, the CAREC[1] countries are not large GHG emitters. However, the accelerated development of mining, industrialization, as well as fossil fuel exports has pushed up the CO2 emissions per capita in several countries to levels significantly above the global average.

Globally, transport is the second largest source of carbon emissions, next only to the power sector. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), transport made up over one-third of global CO2 emissions out of all end-use sectors, with its average emission growth rate increasing faster than any other sectors from 1990 to 2022 except for industry. Within the transport sector, road transport is the highest emitter with a share of 69% in 2019, far above that of aviation and maritime at respective 11% and rail transport at 1%. Countries in the CAREC region are mostly in the heart of the Eurasian continent, and movements of people and goods are heavily dependent on road transport. Available data suggest that typical vehicle fleet during 2010-19 increased annually by 9% in the PRC, 7% in Georgia, 3% in Kazakhstan, 13% in the Kyrgyz Republic, 20% in Mongolia, and 15% in Pakistan.

Electrification of road transport by shifting from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs) can significantly reduce carbon emissions. Data from China Automotive Center show that the average carbon reduction contribution of a battery EV as opposed to an ICEV throughout its entire lifecycle from production to scrapping is around 14.1 tons, equivalent to the carbon emissions produced from an adult’s 33.9 years of breathing.

In the past few years, there has been a multitude of EV research targeting different regions and countries. However, to my knowledge, EV studies focusing on the CAREC region are rare to find. As the trend to move toward electromobility turns out to be increasingly apparent globally, knowing about the CAREC region’s progress of EV deployment is equally important. Hence, this study aims to understand 1) What is the progress of EV and its infrastructure deployment in the CAREC region? 2) To what extent has the PRC engaged in the CAREC countries’ EV industry? And How? Meanwhile, the research intends to specifically explore 1) Whether GHG emissions from the transport sector are significant for the CAREC countries? 2) Where are the EVs of the CAREC countries from? 3) How many EVs does the PRC export to the CAREC countries? 4) What should the CAREC countries consider when developing EV infrastructure?

The study employs a desk review methodology, collecting and analyzing secondary data from various sources such as documents, reports, academic publications, and other materials available online. The major findings are as follows 1) Average CAREC CO2 emissions from the transport sector accounted for almost a quarter of the total CO2 emissions from all sectors; 2) While the transition to e-mobility continues flourishing in the world, EV deployment in the CAREC region is in early stages; 3) CAREC countries have a lot of advantages and opportunities in developing their EV industry, but at the same time face some challenges and threats in promoting e-mobility; 4) Many CAREC countries have set clear targets and incentives to promote EV adoption; 5) EV charging infrastructure is still scarce in most CAREC countries, yet a national target or ambition has been announced; 6) The PRC is the main source of EV imports for most CAREC countries, with its EV exports to the region continuing to increase in 2024.

Based on the observations, the study ends up with multiple suggestions and recommendations for the policy makers to consider. Meanwhile, some limitations of the research are also pointed out.