| La Lettre du GERPISA | no 122 (avril 1998) |
GERPISA's 1997 International Encounter focused on the theme of automobile industry firm globalization strategies and paths. This year's encounter will lay emphasis on GERPISA's second important research endeavor : new areas in the automobile industry. Those globalization strategies which will succeed, and the type of international field recompositions which will prevail, will both result from their reciprocal compatibility. Hence, the title of our program, "The automobile industry : between globalization and regionalization".
A great number of automobile industry firms (constructors, equipment outfitters, distributors) were impressed by the economic dynamism of certain countries, notably in Southeast Asia and Latin America, which subsequently were called emerging industrial countries. The implosion of Communist regimes (in Central and Eastern Europe) or their commercial and industrial openness (China, Vietnam) encouraged perspectives for the rapid creation of new automobile markets. Indeed, these national paths, like those chosen by already-existing industrial countries, fit into three trends in international relations, and it is difficult to know which one will prevail, or rather, in what proportion the three will combine : global liberalization of exchanges under the auspices of the WCO ??, the constitution of regional entities which could simply serve as free-trade areas, or on the contrary economic and political entities in a multipolar world, or the increasing strength of regional countries such as China or India.
The financial crisis hitting Southeast Asia, uncertainty in Latin America, the chaotic transition to capitalism in Russia (not to mention difficulties in certain Eastern European countries), changes in economic orientation and political instability in India, partial liberalization of the Chinese economy under the oftentimes unpredictable, officially communist, and authoritarian regime supervision, have all tempered initial enthusiasm and put into question certain projects. Nevertheless, in a number of cases, agreements and contracts had already been signed and investments launched.
Hence, the fear of over-capacity capable of canceling the effect of what many expect to be the globalization volume.
Research we have carried out to this day point to the fact that automobile markets initially were, from both a quantitative and structural standpoint, dependent on growth models and national revenue redistribution. Several model types exist, and are far from being homogeneous, contrary to appearances or to what has been said and written here and there. In fact, they transform themselves once conditions which render them possible change : either because of their very success, or following a modification in the international relations configuration they had evolved in. Korea is the clearest and most recent exemple of such a process.
Preceding analyses should allow us to draw hypotheses on market evolutions and pertinent profit strategies within the different areas taken into consideration, in light of market and labor uncertainties characteristic of their growth and national revenue redistribution mode. In the same manner as we reconstitute firm globalization paths in order to better focus on what they are anticipating through their choices for implantation and products, likewise we must retrace the path taken in areas where the automobile industry is concentrating its activity and sales in order to evaluate which of these worlds will prevail.