Assessment of 2021-2025-2030 CO2 standards on automakers' portfolio vehicles' segments

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While technical improvements have received widespread attention in the literature, results showed that implementing such upgrades has limited long-term results since CO2 emissions will become stricter over time (Luk et al., 2016). Therefore, 2030 standards, which technical improvements could not respect, challenge manufacturers to investigate other solutions to limit their CO2 fleet emissions. Fleet electrification seems to be the best way to reach 2025-2030 CO2 targets. PHEVs and BEVs are one of these emerging technologies whose impact on a manufacturer’s CAFE compliance costs must be examined. Indeed, a variety of studies analysed the value of purchasing a PHEV for users. To date, only (Al-Alawi and Bradley, 2014) considered the effects of PHEV to automakers and policymakers in achieving passenger car and domestic light truck fleet CAFE compliance. Results show that for Ford, Fiat, and GM US automakers and a variety of incremental cost scenarios, the introduction of PHEVs into the vehicle fleet reduces the costs of CAFE compliance relative to baseline scenarios and should be more thoroughly considered in near-term regulatory. While (Al-Alawi and Bradley, 2014) made significant improvements in this field, questions remain regarding socio-techno- economic assumptions. First, each automotive manufacturer targets a well-defined category of clients. Second, do BEVs share the same effect as PHEVs to reduce the costs of European CAFE compliance? This paper aims to close these research gaps and study the CAFE compliance by identifying the trade-off between BEV/PHEV incremental costs -i.e. the costs of electric drive, electric accessories, and battery- and CAFE penalty fines, considering different scenarios of vehicles sizes.