The transition of automobile industry in Mexico between 1970s and 2016: the past and the future in the US new Trump administration

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Résumé:

1. Introduction: Purpose and back ground of this research
The aim of this paper is to consider the progress of the automobile industry in Mexico since its early stage in 1970s until latest 2016. We would also like to consider the future situation after 2017 based on revealed fact findings of our analysis.
In 2016, the automobile production of Mexico was 3.6 million units which was 7th in the world according to OICA（Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d'Automobiles）. That of Brazil was 2.2 million units as 10th in the world and that of Argentina was 473 thousand units as 25th in the world. Mexico became the top country of automobile production in Latin America. The important aspect of Mexican automobile production is that around 80% of them are for export. Most of them are for USA. The Mexican automobile industry was started in 1970s. At that time, most automobile production was for the domestic market. From late of 1980s to early 1990s, the share of export was gradually expand (Carrillo 2004). The trend of Mexican automobile industry was changed from the import substitution to export oriented in this period. After 1994 of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) start, this trend was became stronger and stronger. Now, US new Tramp administration expresses the special concern about this current condition of automobile industry between Mexico and USA. If it happen to be considerably reducing of Mexican car export to USA, Mexican automobile industry faces to very tough situation. It is very important to consider how this going on.

2. Analysis: Method and Data
To consider the future condition of Mexican automobile industry, we would like to analyze them from the early stage in 1970s to the recent stage in 2016, from various viewpoints such as key mile stones, management strategies of car manufacturers, policies, international competitiveness of automobile and auto parts, and the international value chain of automobile and auto parts. To calculate the international competitiveness of automobile and auto parts, we use trade statistic from UN comtrade. As an indicator of international competitiveness, we use the “Global Competitiveness Index (GCI)” (Baba 2016). The GCI ranges from -1 to 1, with values close to 1 indicating strong international competitiveness and close to -1 indicating weak international competitiveness. To analyze the international value chains of automobile and auto parts, we also use trade statistics of UN comtrade. To consider key mile stones, management strategies and policies, we divide the progress of the Mexican auto industry to five periods. The first period is from 1970s to 1980s: The Mexican automobile industry started as following to Brazil in Latin America. The second is 1990s: It developed and got the top rank in Latin America beyond economic crisis. The third is 2000s: It developed and leaped as a member of NAFTA. The forth is from 2010 to 2016: The latest development before Trump administration. The fifth is after 2017 especially concerning to US new Trump administration.

References: OICA, Carrillo 2004, UN Comtrade, Baba 2016
(Acknowledgements: This research was supported by JSPS KAKENHI　26301024)