Development and Application of an ANFIS based Policy Intervention Evaluation Framework for Electric Vehicle Technology Development

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Résumé:

There appears to be increasing policy emphasis globally on supporting the development of electric vehicle (EV) technologies and industrial growth. The key reason for this is that the electrification of the vehicle drivetrain offers a viable solution for the sustainability requirements of the transport sector and to achieve emission reduction targets. However, different countries use different innovation policies to support the local development of EV technologies and domestic EV industry. To support national governments in making informed decisions, this paper seeks to develop a framework providing an ex-ante impact of various innovation decisions. For this aim, this paper analyses EV innovation policies of United States, Japan, European Union, Germany, France and United Kingdom, and compares them with the actual technology development that is measured by patent filings on those regions. Analysed policies and technology developments are then linked by using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to construct a predictive framework. The developed framework is then applied to Austrian innovation instruments to make suggestions about Austrian future innovation policies for supporting EV technology development. This is done with the support of Austrian Research Promotion Agency. The successful application of ANFIS Model to Austrian innovation instruments suggests that the developed framework might play a significant role for assisting EV innovation policy making by assessing the effects of different policy-mixes on EV technology development.