An aggregative approach to identify and localize the hidden areas of high consumption in emerging countries: India case study

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Résumé:

Today most of the American and Western automotive companies are trying to establish themselves in India and more generally in the BRIC’s countries. For most of these companies the 2007 financial crisis has accelerated the need to settle abroad. In India with more than 1.2 billion people, a high birth rate and a sale trend steadily rising in the automotive sector the future potential may seems unstoppable. But with more than 300 different languages and a caste system which perpetuated social inequality the Indian growth and the increase of the standard of living will not be distributed homogeneously throughout the territory. To take into account the wide diversity of India the starting point was the Indiapolis databases, Indian counterpart of the worldwide e-Geopolis project (Moriconi-Ebrard, 1994). Moreover, official censuses and private datasets have been aggregated on two time frames (2001 and 2011) and four geo-located scales (settlement, built-up area, district and state). The implemented variables are related to five mains categories: Demography, Sociology, Economy, Equipment and Spatial Analysis. The database developed for this research project possesses several millions of entries stocked in a database management system and spatially linked to a Geographic Information System. On an operational point of view, this approach can be used to accurately localize the consumer market. Indeed, in India, the consumer market does not represent 1.2 billion people since the share of peoples belonging to the middle class is lower than in developed economies. From this perspective, a spatial approach should help a company to obtain a better understanding of the ongoing processes occurring in India in order to implement a future dealer’s network. First, this article is going to introduce the concept and the methodology of this multi-scale and multi-criteria approach. Second, a multi-scale model disclosing some hidden areas of high consumption will be presented. These results can only be reached by aggregating data related to a large number of small and mid-sized settlements to an upper scale.

Keywords: India, Multi-Criteria Approach, Multi-Scale Approach, E-Geopolis, Point of Sales Network, Consumption, Bihar.

Texte complet:

An aggregative approach to identify and localize the hidden areas of high consumption in the emerging countries: India case study

Joan Perez

* UMR 7300 ESPACE – CNRS
University of Avignon and Vaucluse