Disruption? What Disruption? – The impact of electric vehicles, autonomy and new mobility models on the industry

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Abstract:

This paper builds upon the final chapter of a just-published book, Smitka and Warrian (2017), A Profile of the Global Auto Industry: Technology and Dynamics (Business Expert Press), and a November 2016 conference presentation in Italy to argue that the existing assemblers and component manufacturers do not face disruption in any meaningful sense of the term from a trio of widely touted new technologies and business models. That is, in the next decade neither Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) manufacturers such as Tesla, nor autonomous vehicle developers such as Google, nor Mobility 2.0 providers such as Uber are a threat to incumbents. At base, the diffusion of new automotive technologies takes place only over 3 or more model cycles, or 20 years. I trace a variety of reasons why that will remain the case for these technologies, from the presence of substitutes to specific problems with their business cases to the nature of motor vehicles as complex assemblies that provide an advantage to incumbents. That does not mean they are innocuous: industry players appear locked in a prisoner's dilemma, investing heavily today so as to not fall behind in technologies that will not generate a significant revenue stream until the distant future.

Full Text:

Disruption? What Disruption? – The impact of electric vehicles, autonomy and new mobility models on the industry
Michael Smitka, Professor of Economics, Washington and Lee University
This paper builds upon the final chapter of Smitka and Warrian (2017), A Profile of the Global Auto Industry: Technology and Dynamics (Business Expert Press) and an previous conference presentation in Italy to argue that the existing assemblers and component manufacturers do not face disruption in any meaningful sense of the term from a trio of widely touted new technologies and business models. That is, in the next decade neither Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) manufacturers such as Tesla, nor autonomous vehicle developers such as Google, nor Mobility 2.0 providers such as Uber are a threat to incumbents. At base, the diffusion of new automotive technologies takes place only over 3 or more model cycles, or 20 years. I trace a variety of reasons why that will remain the case for these technologies, from the presence of substitutes to specific problems with their business cases to the nature of motor vehicles as complex assemblies that provide an advantage to incumbents. That does not mean they are innocuous: industry players appear locked in a prisoner's dilemma, investing heavily today so as to not fall behind in technologies that will not generate a significant revenue stream until the distant future.