A Fermi estimate of economic rationality: back-casting the way forward to zero-emission society and the roll of automotive industry

Résumé:

The purpose of this paper is to discuss an economic rationality of automotive and energy industries in the virtual society by using Fermi estimations. A zero-emission “virtual society” is described with minimum premises, which consists of Transportation, Product 3D, Energy, Product 2D, and Lifeline of the society. A comparison between Minimum premises A and B1-B3, which are equivalent to A except for decentralization, ESS and rotary production, respectively, were also discussed. A Fermi estimate weas conducted to calculate the transition cost to the virtual society.