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Expanding locations for growing middle classes of emerging markets
Submitted by joan perez, Universite de Nice, UMR 7300 Espace-Cnrs Renault on 20 janv. 2014 - 11:41
Type de publication:Conference Paper
Source:Gerpisa colloquium, Kyoto (2014)
Mots-clés:Bayesian analysis, India, innovative ecosystems, spatial segmentation, upper middle classes
With a motorization rate constantly growing, the BRIC countries are often seen as new eldorados in term of consumer market. Moreover in the case of India the population is projected to sharply increase with a massive development of the middle classes. In contrast it is important to keep in mind that the megacities will not host the biggest demographic growth due to the saturation of the metropolitan areas. This saturation combined with reverse migration to provincial towns in an overall situation of fast economic growth will lead the core automotive market to be mostly located in small and mid-sized cities. These areas are accommodating a bigger and bigger share of the growing middle class. Thus, the standard of living increases as well as the economic growth will not be distributed in a homogeneous way within a territory where the segregation is already worsened by a hermetic caste system. It is therefore essential for a car manufacturer to locate as accurately as possible the present consumer market as well as forecast the coming potential of the other living areas. The case of India with a massive population and a chaotic urban structure may generate new innovative ecosystems based on:
- Top down construction processes such as integrated townships, Special Economic Zones, IT corridors…shaping archipelagoes and generating a kind of islanding mobility
- Bottom up free carbon emission appearing as a potential dissemination path for electric vehicles, mainly through e-rickshaws or e-bikes.
The aim of this study is to link the standard of living with both the urbanization processes and the ability to shift towards a socio-demographic modernity for the local peoples. In order to reach this aim, a multi-scale and spatial database has been built especially for this project. To deal with the long and complex story of India a conceptualization has been performed in order to select 59 criteria from this database as inputs to be used in a Bayesian five-step procedure. In this paper, the results of the Bayesian network model will be presented showing that the Indian Territory can be segmented in eleven kinds of spaces. Some of these profiles like "well-being eco-system", or "innovation vector ahead of its time" may help a company to get a better understanding of the ongoing processes occurring in India. The internal and external characteristics of these spaces as well as their potential consumer markets will be highlighted and put into perspective by comparing these profiles with the preliminary results of a fieldwork step. These elements combined with environmental concerns and willingness of energy autonomy highlight the potential of micro-grids. They are consistent with new electric mobility and the use of local resources building new ecosystems for innovation.
Keywords: India, rising middle classes, Bayesian analysis, spatial segmentation, innovative ecosystems.
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