A European model for the number of end-of-life vehicles

Publication Type:

Journal Article


International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, Volume 7, Number 4, p.343-355 (2007)




This paper describes a model for the projection of the number of End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs) and presents a baseline projection. Historical data on population, the number of cars per capita (car density), GDP per capita, and the vintage distribution of cars are combined to model ELVs. The lifetime of vintages of cars is described by a Weibull distribution and the development in car density is modelled by a Gompertz function. Parameters of the distribution and function are calibrated by using historical data, mainly from Eurostat. The paper presents a baseline projection of the number of ELVs for the EU25. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

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