Research Questions - Nicolas Hatzfeld

The automobile and dynamics of mobility

The markets of the developped countries have limited prospects of growth, all the more so since there is an increase of the average mileage and the longevity of vehicles. However, within these countries high differences exist. For instance, even inside Western Europe, Northern countries rather have big cars that are also less often replaced. Danemark is the less motorized country whereas Southern countries have smaller cars very used, Italy being the more motorized country. In France, there is a large distribution of the use of the automobile and a high rate in the purchase of new cars. The French market has three dynamic segments: the population living in suburban areas, women and retired people, whereas the sector of young people is very slowly increasing. On one hand, these indications show us how important cultural and institutional facts between countries are : some of them highly increased the traffic of private cars whereas others have priviledged the modes of public transport. On the other hand, they remind us the burden of the impact of great economic and social trends on our societies nowadays.

In Northern America as well as in Europe and Japan, the duration of the daily route is everywhere close to one hour, despite the high variety in the modes of transport used. This duration plays an essential part of regulation and the ajustements are made according to the quickness of trips. As a consequence, users benefit from a more or less easy access to the possible employment areas according to the available means of transport, the situation of the housing or the employment in relation to the effective main roads, the parking places offered by the employer, etc. The differences in the means of transport used correspond to differences in work or purchases. As a matter of fact, in Europe, for instance, there is an increase of localizations close to ring roads, and as a consequence, transports between outskirts and suburbs are raising dramatically, whereas trips inside town centers are stagnating or even decreasing.

Practices of mobility are determined by urbanization and national and regional development but in return, they highly contribute to the restructuring of landscapes. Therfore, every morning, all trips made by the population of a built-up area draw the structure of the so-called "invisible city". It would be a mistake to underestimate the autonomy of the social actors in this restructuring. : the localization near the centers of communication, the increase of the number of people working over-lunch, the concentration of purchases inside shopping centers once a week: all these factors regulate traffic. Progress of mobility also contribute to slow down the activities of proximity, and trips between cities use main roads that skirt around cities that were initially created to make national main roads flow freely. Thanks to the flexibility of the adaptation of the social actors a total paralysis due to the increase of traffics has been avoided. In that field, we must beware the evaluations about the modes of transport : they often look disappointing in comparison to what they could really offer and to the expectations of the users, like in the case of the overtaken highways between cities, however they make traffic flow freely inside the suburbs.

Can we use these analytical elements to establish the characteristics of the automobile of the future ? Several indications can be layed out : the growth of trips between cities and the stability or even the decrease of trips inside cities limit the prospects of the development of a stricly urban vehicle. This vehicle could be defined essentially by substraction in relation to small standard automobiles. These limits do not erase the idea of an urban vehicle. Although it does not represent the best solution to problems of traffic inside cities, it can find some niches inside the market.

Sensitivity to problems of pollution increases despite certain forms of clinging to the ownership of a car are decreasing. The urban car might become the second or third vehicle of a family or might be available by hiring, rather private or socially limited (tourists for instance) than public. It might as well be part of a rental method including a touring car for occasional long range trips, even between cities, in terms of speed and safety, keeping the standards of urban cars at a higher level.

The car will meet an evolution bound to be related to forms of mobility and to the organization of the areas. It is important to keep in mind the main trends of society. For instance, the French automobile market might be conditionned by the difficult access to jobs of the younger generation and therefore to consumption or by the constant erosion of middles classes which have continuously been, up to now, a major segment of the market.